Wednesday, November 08, 2006

And So We Begin

While there are still several races still to be called, some things are becoming clear, while others are still very murky. The goal of this blog is to sort all of this out.

Tentatively, a few things stand out. Looking to the new Congress, the Republican membership, as a whole, becomes much more conservative. The Democratic majority was by and large built by defeating what few Republican moderates were left--Nancy Johnson, Clay Shaw, Jim Leach. With DeWine and Chafee falling in the Senate, I find it hard to see this as a liberal surge. Democratic victors were largely of the Blue Dog type and will, in my mind, be the fulcrum of the 110th Congress.

Looking across the map, there seem to be a lot of things going on and I'm hesitant to ascribe a "meaning" to this election as of yet. Are the Democratic gains in the northeast explained by the same factors as the events in Indiana? Democrats have picked up two House seats in Florida, Iowa, and Arizona. I'm not sure what connects these.

One thing that may give credence to the "nationalization" argument is that it appears, as of now, that 6 incumbent senators have gone down to defeat. That doesn't just happen by accident, and its probably a result of more than just 6 good Democratic candidates running good races with ample funding.

And so, the analysis will continue...

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