Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Michigan I

Some interesting things coming out of Michigan. On the Democratic side, the fact that only Clinton was on the ballot makes interpreting the results--Clinton vs. "Non committed" somewhat troublesome. Namely, we don't know how this affected turnout. With no delegates at stake and the major candidates not campaigning there, its hard to use the results as a gauge for what a true Michigan Democratic primary would have looked like. Nonetheless, Thomas Edsall's look at the exit polls reveals some interesting things vis a vis Clinton vs. Obama. As in the earlier contests, Clinton does better among the less affluent and the older, Obama better among the younger and more affluent. When it comes to race, Clinton fared very poorly. A bad omen for South Carolina?

Interactive maps for both parties. Note that Clinton lost in Washtenaw county, home of the University of Michigan.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Some Interesting Commentary

Yesterday's column by George Will raised some interesting points and brought to the forefront some data I hadn't really realized.

I found these two paragraphs particularly of interest...

Granted, in the past 150 years, Franklin Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter (barely) are the only Democrats to achieve 50 percent of the popular vote. And this year Democrats might still give Republicans the gift of Hillary Clinton, who probably has a popular vote ceiling of 52 percent. A subliminal -- too much so -- subtext of Obama's message is that Clinton cannot receive the big mandate required for big changes: Enactment of Social Security in 1935 followed Franklin Roosevelt's 57.4 percent victory in 1932, and in 1965 Medicare came after Lyndon Johnson's 61 percent victory over Barry Goldwater.

But even if Democrats nominate Clinton, Republicans must remember that Bush's 2.4-point margin of victory in 2004 was unimpressive: In the 12 previous reelections of presidents, the average margin of victory was 12.9 points. Bush's 50.7 percent of the vote in 2004 was the third-smallest for a reelected president (Woodrow Wilson and Bill Clinton won 49.2 percent in 1916 and 1996, respectively). Kerry's 48.3 percent was the largest ever against a president being reelected. (In the 12 previous reelections, no losing candidate received more than 46.1 percent; nine of the losers received less than 45 percent.)

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

New Hampshire Results

County and town level results for the Democrats and Republicans. Interactive map. More data and analysis to come.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Huckabee and Catholics

By way of Polysigh, some number crunching on Huckabee's Iowa win. The more Catholic counties were less likely to support him. Not good news when you think about the national ramifications. If the GOP nominates Huckabee and becomes even more southern-based, this could be a trend working against them in November.
The blue counties are Huckabee counties, the Red are Romney. In the bottom map, the darker the red, the more Catholic the county.

Friday, January 04, 2008

Iowa Caucus Results

County level results for the Iowa Caucuses

A nice interactive map of the GOP results.

Also, interesting results from the entrance and exit polls. Pretty clear across the board win for Obama. The media has already highlighted the women's vote tilting to Obama.