Fivethirtyeight.com has this really good primer on the political geography of Illinois in preparation for today's voting. The key takeaway is that Romney's goal is big margins in the Chicago collar counties while Santorum needs huge turnout and margins downstate.
We'll see how things play out and have some analysis tomorrow.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Thursday, March 01, 2012
How Crucial Is It To Win Primaries In Swing States???
With Mitt Romney escaping Michigan bruised, but intact, his attention now turns to a perhaps more crucial contest—Ohio. Among the Super Tuesday contests, Ohio is important not just for the number of delegates it will award but because the Buckeye State will garner intense interest in the fall. Whereas President Obama’s polling numbers in Michigan have been quite strong, and he won the state by more than 16 points in 2008, Ohio is less friendly territory.
One question we might ask is whether there is a correlation between a candidate’s performance in a state’s primary and how they will fare in November. The ability to pivot from the primary to the general is a skill that all winning candidates must develop. On one hand, there’s reason to doubt a clear connection between a state’s primary and general contest. Primaries, we know, bring a much more ideological electorate to the polls. A losing primary candidate may have been “too moderate” for the party faithful—but consequently more competitive in the more moderate fall electorate.
On the other hand, primaries give candidates the opportunity to build an organization and campaign infrastructure that can be put to work in November. Those candidates who can win primaries and caucuses are those who demonstrate the ability to build the massive organization that will be crucial to winning the general. Much of this organization will be directed toward the larger general election audience once the nomination is secured. If they fail at this during the primaries, they may fail at it during the fall.
Should a connection between the primary and general exist, it is of most importance in “toss-up” or “swing” states. Mitt Romney’s primary loss in South Carolina will not—absent complete collapse—matter in the fall. Clearly more important was what transpired the next week in Florida. It’s almost impossible to conceive of a Romney (or Santorum for that matter) win in November that doesn’t include winning the Sunshine State.
So what does history tell us???Most recent nomination contests—with the exception of the Democrats in 2008—have wrapped up quite quickly. With the winner rolling through state after state there haven’t been a large number of states that allow us to explore the question of whether candidates can bounce back from primary losses. However if, as it now seems, the GOP contest is going to go on for a while, we should have the opportunity to dig into this phenomenon some more. Despite the relative lack of test cases, there are some examples that jump out.
Looking at those competitive or “toss-up” states, we find relatively few instances in recent cycles where a candidate lost his party’s primary or caucus there, and then recovered to win the state in November. The one exception to this is Barack Obama. In 2008, Obama lost spring contests in New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Mexico. Despite this, he won all of them in the general. In this sense, the long nomination fight that forced Obama to build statewide organizations may have paid off in the fall.
John McCain, who wrapped up the GOP contests more swiftly and with fewer losses, failed to win any swing states that he also lost during the primaries. In 2004, John Kerry swept to the nomination in even faster order with only a small handful of primary losses. None were in states seen as competitive at the time. In 2000, George W. Bush won one swing state he lost in the primary—New Hampshire—while losing another--Michigan. Bob Dole, in 1996, lost Missouri during the nomination contest but bounced back to win it in the fall. In 1992 Bill Clinton managed to lose 3 spring state contests that he put in his column in November—New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada. Finally, in 1988, Michael Dukakis managed one of his few fall wins in Iowa, whose caucuses he lost. On the flip side, whereas George H.W. Bush only lost nine states in the general, three came in normally competitive states that he lost during the primary season—Iowa, Minnesota, and Washington.So, despite the small number of cases that fit our definition—primary losses in swing states--there seems to be pretty good reason for Mitt Romney to worry about next week’s vote in Ohio. Like Florida, Ohio is a state that GOP badly needs in November. Should he fail to defeat Rick Santorum there next week, the loss may prove to be more lethal than even Michigan would have been.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Jesse Jackson in Appalachia
In my exploration of voting in counties heavily dependent on government income, I've found myself digging deeply into the politics of Appalachia. This region's political behavior seems to confound liberals' expectations that those who are among the poorest and most dependent on policies championed by the Democrats should reward that party with their votes. As I've shown, that's rarely been the case over the past several decades. In my last post, I suggested that part of the Democrats' problem is that they haven't always tried to connect with these voters and that some candidates--especially Bill Clinton--offer a blue print for future candidates in the region.
During the 2008 campaign, part of the narrative revolving around Barack Obama was that his race was the primary reason why he wasn't able to win downscale white rural voters. While there might be some evidence of this, while doing some web surfing on Appalachian politics I came across this interesting article from the great site, Daily Yonder, about Jesse Jackson's 1988 campaign. The more I read about Jackson's presidential runs, the more I believe they've been overlooked by students of elections. Too often Jackson is dismissed as either a fringe candidate or one whose campaigns were exclusively about race. Rather--as this story argues--Jackson was extremely successful in uniting downscale whites and minority voters. For example, when I dug up the results of the 1988 Kentucky primary, I found some interesting results. Kentucky was won overwhelmingly by Al Gore, who won all but one county. However, Jackson ran ahead of eventual nominee Michael Dukakis in 18 counties, highlighted below:
During the 2008 campaign, part of the narrative revolving around Barack Obama was that his race was the primary reason why he wasn't able to win downscale white rural voters. While there might be some evidence of this, while doing some web surfing on Appalachian politics I came across this interesting article from the great site, Daily Yonder, about Jesse Jackson's 1988 campaign. The more I read about Jackson's presidential runs, the more I believe they've been overlooked by students of elections. Too often Jackson is dismissed as either a fringe candidate or one whose campaigns were exclusively about race. Rather--as this story argues--Jackson was extremely successful in uniting downscale whites and minority voters. For example, when I dug up the results of the 1988 Kentucky primary, I found some interesting results. Kentucky was won overwhelmingly by Al Gore, who won all but one county. However, Jackson ran ahead of eventual nominee Michael Dukakis in 18 counties, highlighted below:
Using Census data, eight of these counties had a population that was 95% or more white. Only four have an African American population above 10%. Thus, twenty years before Barack Obama's emergence, in an era much less "post racial," Jesse Jackson was able to perform quite well in an area we might expect to be hostile to his candidacy. What seems to have helped him was that he didn't write these voters and these areas off. Like the New Yorker piece I linked to last week argued, showing up, making an effort, and taking these voters and their concerns seriously can go a long way.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Some More Data On The Voting Of Lower Income Whites
As I hinted at in my post a few days back, the question of why lower income--or more governmentally dependent--white voters have shown a tendency to vote Republican has vexed many on the left for years. Over at The Monkey Cage, John Sides provides some evidence--as produced by Larry Bartels--that white working class voters have not, overall, become more Republican:
Among whites without a college degree, income has become a stronger predictor of the vote over time. But actually it’s those with less income, not more income, who are more likely to support Democratic presidential candidates. And again, there certainly no trend by which whites with below-average incomes and no college degree become more Republican.
What shift to the right there has been seems to be confined to the south. Thus, my highlighting of the Appalachian/Ozark region seems to have some confirmation. When I was doing some Google surfing last night trying to track down some writing on this region, I came across this story that I remembered from back in the fall of 2008. In it, you get a sense of the obstacles--and opportunities--that Democrats have among these voters. While I noted the success of Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996, the New Yorker piece uses Virginia Senator (and previously Governor) Mark Warner as a more modern example of how Democrats can win in the hollers. Here's a map of the 2001 Virginia Governor's race, won by Warner:
As you can see, Warner did exceptionally well in the southwestern corner of the state, allowing him to pad the large lead that he built up in the much more solidly DC suburbs. Ultimately, Barack Obama wasn't able to duplicate Warner's success in this region. Nonetheless, he became the first Democrat to win the Commonwealth since Lyndon Johnson.
In the end, as candidates prioritize where they spend their time and resources and how they put together a strategy, they must confront the reality of where they are likely to be successful. Coalitions (and the size of their component parts) are cobbled together. The math begins to take over. Despite the fact that those voters discussed in the NYT story might seem like they "should" vote Democratic, so much history suggests that they won't, regardless of how much effort is expended. In states like Virginia that offer large numbers of other more reliable coalition members (minorities for example), winning the state remains a possibility. In other states--say Kentucky--there exists no realistic path to victory given the composition of the electorate. Hence, a candidate like Obama turns his attention elsewhere.
Among whites without a college degree, income has become a stronger predictor of the vote over time. But actually it’s those with less income, not more income, who are more likely to support Democratic presidential candidates. And again, there certainly no trend by which whites with below-average incomes and no college degree become more Republican.
What shift to the right there has been seems to be confined to the south. Thus, my highlighting of the Appalachian/Ozark region seems to have some confirmation. When I was doing some Google surfing last night trying to track down some writing on this region, I came across this story that I remembered from back in the fall of 2008. In it, you get a sense of the obstacles--and opportunities--that Democrats have among these voters. While I noted the success of Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996, the New Yorker piece uses Virginia Senator (and previously Governor) Mark Warner as a more modern example of how Democrats can win in the hollers. Here's a map of the 2001 Virginia Governor's race, won by Warner:
As you can see, Warner did exceptionally well in the southwestern corner of the state, allowing him to pad the large lead that he built up in the much more solidly DC suburbs. Ultimately, Barack Obama wasn't able to duplicate Warner's success in this region. Nonetheless, he became the first Democrat to win the Commonwealth since Lyndon Johnson.
In the end, as candidates prioritize where they spend their time and resources and how they put together a strategy, they must confront the reality of where they are likely to be successful. Coalitions (and the size of their component parts) are cobbled together. The math begins to take over. Despite the fact that those voters discussed in the NYT story might seem like they "should" vote Democratic, so much history suggests that they won't, regardless of how much effort is expended. In states like Virginia that offer large numbers of other more reliable coalition members (minorities for example), winning the state remains a possibility. In other states--say Kentucky--there exists no realistic path to victory given the composition of the electorate. Hence, a candidate like Obama turns his attention elsewhere.
A Quick Addendum To The Previous Post
Here's a quick addition to the previous post, looking at the data in a slightly different way. Whereas the NYT story looked just at spending on government benefits, Talking Points Memo puts this spending in comparison to the amount of money contributed by each state. While not at the county level, we do get to see the variance across states from those that get relatively little back relative to their tax contributions versus those that receive much more. Like I discussed previously, those places that not only have a heavy reliance on government benefits, but also contribute relatively little for them, oftentimes vote consistently for the GOP.
As an editorial aside, I'd also point people's attention to the one place that has the lowest return on its tax contributions--Washington, DC. As a DC resident and taxpayer, it is data like this that drives us Washingtonians nuts. "Taxation Without Representation" indeed.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Why Don't People Who Benefit From Government Vote For The Democrats???
Since it was published last week, this story by the New York Times has been garnering a lot of coverage. In great detail and nuance, it tackles a theme and a dilemma that has dominated our politics for at least the last generation. As the story illustrates, and as their fantastic mapping shows, Americans have become increasingly dependent on government programs, especially entitlements--Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, veterans benefits, and other forms of income support. At the same time, the willingness to pay for these programs has declined precipitously. Hence, the current fiscal straits in which we find ourselves. Ironically, among those most benefiting from these programs has been an attraction to anti-government rhetoric from the right.
In reading this story and exploring the corresponding map, I began to wonder just how those areas most dependent on government income voted over time. While the story focused in on one county in Minnesota, I wanted to broaden the scope and see if any interesting patterns emerged. What I decided to do was zoom in on those counties who had the highest degree of what we might call "dependence"--those who received more than 40% of their income from these sources--these are the counties colored dark red on the NYT map.
In total, there are 82 counties nationwide that fall into this category (I excluded the Alaska census area because voting data wasn't available for it). I produced a spreadsheet, seen below, that lists these counties--by state--along with their percentage of government "dependence" as well as two other variables that I thought might be revealing: their racial makeup shown as % white; and their poverty rate (both from Census data). Oftentimes in our politics there has been an assumption that poverty and government dependence is concentrated in minority communities. This data clearly refutes that.
In reading this story and exploring the corresponding map, I began to wonder just how those areas most dependent on government income voted over time. While the story focused in on one county in Minnesota, I wanted to broaden the scope and see if any interesting patterns emerged. What I decided to do was zoom in on those counties who had the highest degree of what we might call "dependence"--those who received more than 40% of their income from these sources--these are the counties colored dark red on the NYT map.
In total, there are 82 counties nationwide that fall into this category (I excluded the Alaska census area because voting data wasn't available for it). I produced a spreadsheet, seen below, that lists these counties--by state--along with their percentage of government "dependence" as well as two other variables that I thought might be revealing: their racial makeup shown as % white; and their poverty rate (both from Census data). Oftentimes in our politics there has been an assumption that poverty and government dependence is concentrated in minority communities. This data clearly refutes that.
Next, I wanted to see how each of these counties voted in recent elections. Rather than code each election, I picked a few that I thought might be of particular interest. I coded the two most recent presidential elections to see the most recent political behavior of these areas and to explore whether there was any noticeable short term change. I then decided to look at 1992. 1992 is of note in that it, like 2008, was an election contested during an economic downturn and might produce similar "pro-government" sentiment in those areas of greatest need. Similarly, I picked 1980. Also conducted during economic difficulties, 1980 is notable for the rise of Ronald Reagan and the ascendancy of anti-government rhetoric. Thus, as American politics began to transition away from the New Deal assumptions of the previous generation, we might wonder if areas strongly dependent on government resisted Reagan. Finally, I picked the 1964 Johnson landslide. The thinking here is that this election would probably represent the apex of pro-government voting.
In looking at the spreadsheet, very few clear cut trends emerge and there is certainly no correlation between government dependence and support for the Democratic party. Things are much more complicated (and hence interesting). Nonetheless, there are a number of things to take note of and explore. In 2008, of these 82 counties, only 30 voted for Barack Obama. This is the type of result that makes many Democrats' heads spin. How is it, they ask, that those voters most benefitting from programs championed by Democrats vote "against their interests"??? This phenomenon garnered a lot of attention a few years back with the publication of Thomas Frank's "What's The Matter With Kansas?" If we map this voting--coloring Obama counties Blue and McCain counties Red--we get the following:
The most interesting aspect of this map, I think, is the clustering of McCain counties in the Kentucky, Tennesse, Missouri region. These counties are, as the data suggests, overwhelmingly white and poor. They also tend to be mountainous, low population, counties in the Appalachian and Ozark ranges. Looking at the voting over time, these are also counties that have remained, for the most part, consistently Republican. Clearly, it seems as if there is more than just economics at play here. Indeed, these areas have long had a political culture that has confounded Democrats' ability to compete, going back generations. The one modern Democrat who performed well in this region, perhaps not surprisingly, was Bill Clinton. Not only did Clinton win 60 of the 82 counties nationwide, he did particurly well in this cluster of KY/TN/MO counties--so much so that he won all three states in both 1992 and 1996. No Democrat has won any of the three since.
How do we explain this change? While these counties and regions have changed little over the past decades, they were receptive to Clinton but not Obama (and Kerry). Going back further, these counties also supported Carter and Johnson. Is the shift a result of a broader movement against the Democrats, as hinted at in the original NYT story? Is it the result of the fact that the most recent Democratic nominees were northerners who were perceived as foreign to this region's culture and people? Clinton hailed from this area and both Carter and LBJ were southerners so there might be some credence to this hypothesis.
A few other observations. 1980 stands out as the year in which these counties' vote was most divided, with Reagan winning 42 and Carter 40 counties respectively. Thus, the notion that this was perhaps a "tipping point" election may have some confirmation.
Looking at the race variable, while I've so far discussed the overwhelmingly white KY/TN/MO counties, there are a number of overwhelmingly African American counties represented in the data. Specifically, Perry and Wilcox County Alabama, Marion County South Carolina, and Holmes, Jefferson, Humphreys, and Quitman Counties in Mississippi. Here, as expected, there was overwhelming support for all of the recent Democratic candidates (back during the lead up to the 2008 election I did a series of posts on the interesting political geography of these regions--see here and here). Also remember, when looking at the 1964 vote in these counties, that the Voting Rights Act had yet to be passed. Next, there are a few counties with large Hispanic populations--see those in Texas as well as Mora and Guadalupe in New Mexico. Finally, make note of some counties with a large Native American population--Apache in Arizona; Sioux in North Dakota; Buffalo and Shannon in South Dakota. Like with the heavily African American counties, those with large Hispanic or Native American populations have voted as we would expect.
Perhaps the most confounding set of counties--and those that I will need to research more deeply--are those found in Michigan. What is interesting about these counties is that they are overwhelmingly white, have high degrees of governement "dependence," but are not terribly poor. Their poverty rates all hover near the statewide average of 15%. So what explains this? Going back to the original NYT map, you can separate out the different components of government support. These counties show a heavy reliance on both Social Security and Medicare, suggesting a large elderly population. At the same time, though, these counties also have large reliance on unemployment insurance. In a lot of ways, these counties seem quite similar to Chisago County Minnesota which was the focus of the NYT story.
These are just a few observations based on a cursory examination of this data. There's a lot more that I hope to delve into, especially focusing on individual counties or regions, in the coming weeks. What does come through, though, is that voters and regions have voting histories and behaviors that don't fit into a simple narrative or explanation. This is especially the case when it comes to the correlation between reliance on government and party support. As the Times story makes clear, voters possess a series of often contradictory feelings and beliefs. For those on the left who aspire for an electorate that will vote strictly along economic lines, this data is bound to frustrate.
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Visualizing Polarization in Congress
I've written a bit about polarization in Congress. Every semester, as I teach my students about the nature of partisanship, I try to give them a visual sense of how the membership has changed over time. Most often, I rely upon the work of Keith Poole, who has pioneered the study of congressional partisanship by creating a methodology that allows for the comparison of the membership over time. DW-NOMINATE scores give individual members a place along a liberal / conservative continuum based upon their voting behavior. By comparing individual members with their partisan colleagues, one is able to gauge each party's internal cohesion. By comparing individuals with members of the opposite party, one can see how much polarization exists between Republicans and Democrats.
When one takes this data across all Congresses, one gets the amazing short video above. As one plays through the 112 Congresses that we've had, one sees how polarized the current era has become. Both the Democrats and Republicans have become more internally cohesive and more distant from each other. Fewer and fewer members find themselves crossing party lines, making the passage of legislation that is broadly accepted across the ideological spectrum more difficult.
Check out Poole's site for more visualization of this dynamic.
Thursday, February 02, 2012
Seeking Single Women
I am working my way through Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin's "The Path To 270" and wanted to do a quick post on a fascinating bit of data. Teixeira, co-author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority," is the primary influence on how I tend to approach election analysis given his emphasis on demographic change and political geography.
In "The Path To 270" Teixeira and Halpin delve into the major components of the coalition that elected President Obama with an eye to how these groups have increased or decreased in number and how they will approach the 2012 election. Beyond their focus on minority voters and college educated whites (topics which I'll try to cover in future posts), I was struck by the data they present on single women. To quote...
Unmarried women were also strong Obama supporters in 2008, favoring him by a 70-29 margin. Unmarried women now make up almost half, 47 percent, of adult women, up from 38 percent in 1970. Their current share of the voter pool--a quarter of eligible voters--is nearly the size of white evangelical protestants, the GOP's largest base group. And since the growth rate of unmarried women is so fast (double that of married women) the proportion of unmarried women in the voting pool will continue to increase.
Teixeira and Halpin's analysis draws upon an earlier study of unmarried voters, "A New America," produced by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in 2007. Further putting the numbers in context, they note "there are over 53 unmarried women of voting age, a number that dwarfs the percentage of seniors, people of color and even union members." In comparing marital status with other variables, they find that "marital status is a powerful predictor of the vote within other voting blocks; unmarried women tend to vote like other unmarried women, regardless of other powerful demographic variables such as age, income, and education."
To connect these demographic trends with policy, Greenberg and his co-authors make a strong case that unmarried women, in particular, have been strong proponents of health care reform, reduced American military involvement overseas, and economic parity in the workplace. Given what Obama has achieved in these areas, it will be interesting to see how his campaign messaging targets unmarried women. While health care reform, specifically, has been a subject that Obama has been hesitant to discuss with broad audiences, I would bet that there will be a great deal of "microtargeting" directed at unmarried women.
If we were to extend our analysis to include unmarried men as well (who also favored Obama in 2008 but to a lesser degree than women), the numbers are even more staggering. As this recent piece notes (and the visual at top shows) not only are single people becoming more numerous, but they tend to be concentrated in certain geographic areas. Again, from Greenberg...
From 1960 to 2006, the percentage of the voting age population that was unmarried grew from 27 to 45 percent. Between the 2002 and 2006 elections, the growth rate of unmarried Americans was double that of married Americans. If this trend continues, the unmarried will be a majority of the population within 15 years.
So, moving forward it will be worth paying attention to this dimension of the voting public. While there seems to be little discussion of how marital status affects policy beliefs and voting preferences--at least in more mainstream venues--the data on single Americans is pretty compelling, especially as their numbers increase so dramatically. In this regard, it would seem as if the recent economic downturn would have been felt particularly hard by single Americans. A married couple is better able to absorb a loss or decline in income than a single individual. Thus, how these folks perceive the past four years--and assign responsibility for the downturn--will be crucial to both parties in November.
Labels:
2012 election,
Barack Obama,
women and politics,
women voters
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
A Short Take on Florida, Including Ominous Turnout Numbers
Mitt Romney's victory yesterday in Florida is obviously a shot in the arm to his campaign, especially after the shock of South Carolina. Above, I've posted a map of the primary results, courtesy of Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas. The counties highlighted in Green were won by Romney; Blue were Gingrich victories. To make some sense of the map, I'd refer back to a post I wrote in the weeks leading up to the 2008 election.
Florida's political geography is extremely fascinating. The northern part of the state, including the panhandle, more closely resembles the neighboring states of Georgia and Alabama than it does the rest of the state. More rural and with a large military presence, these counties have a stronger "Deep South" flavor--more Evangelicals and social conservatives. Though less populous than other regions in the state, it favored Gingrich. Exit polling from yesterday's vote confirms Gingrich's (and Santorum's) appeal to these voters and serves to confirm that Romney has still not sold this important GOP bloc on his candidacy.
On the turnout front, some more troubling news for the GOP. As I wrote recently, turnout in New Hampshire, while up compared to 2008, did not increase at the rate we might expect for a party energized and positioned to recapture the White House. I did some quick calculations on the most recent contests. South Carolina saw an impressive 36% increase in Republican primary turnout over 2008 (603,856 votes vs. 445,677). In Florida, however--a much more important state in November--turnout was actually down 14% compared to four years ago (1,669,585 votes vs. 1,949,498).
Here's some Florida turnout analysis (including an interesting graph of county data) from Michael McDonald, one of the foremost scholars of voter participation.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Does President Obama Have A "Cushion" In 2012???
As we get more and more polling data about how President Obama stacks up against his potential Republican rivals, it's important to remember that in many ways the national percentages are irrelevant. Presidential contests are really state by state races. The ultimate goal is to compile the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. Because of the vast differences across states and regions--something that this site aspires to capture--neither Obama or Romney/Gingrich will have the same level of support everywhere.
Thus, as we begin to look to November, it's useful to look back at recent elections, especially 2008, and see how the candidates varied across the states. This will give us the opportunity to see how likely it is that either candidate will be able to bring new states into their coalition.
Another way to state this is: how much ground must the Republican nominee make up based upon what happened in 2008? How much of a "cushion" does Obama have? Does he have any realistic opportunity to build upon his 2008 margin?
To help answer this, I decided to look at how many states were actually closely decided in 2008. These would be the main targets for both candidates, especially the Republican nominee who needs to improve dramatically on John McCain's 173 electoral votes. I produced the following table that lists each state based upon the winning candidate's margin of victory.
Thus, as we begin to look to November, it's useful to look back at recent elections, especially 2008, and see how the candidates varied across the states. This will give us the opportunity to see how likely it is that either candidate will be able to bring new states into their coalition.
Another way to state this is: how much ground must the Republican nominee make up based upon what happened in 2008? How much of a "cushion" does Obama have? Does he have any realistic opportunity to build upon his 2008 margin?
To help answer this, I decided to look at how many states were actually closely decided in 2008. These would be the main targets for both candidates, especially the Republican nominee who needs to improve dramatically on John McCain's 173 electoral votes. I produced the following table that lists each state based upon the winning candidate's margin of victory.
What we see is that, beyond the 7% national spread between Obama and McCain, the state by state results are even more impressive for the Presdident. If we use a spread of 5% as an arbitrary definition of a "close" outcome, we see (highlighted in yellow) that only six states were decided by such a margin in 2008. Of these, Barack Obama won 4 (NC, FL, IN, OH) while McCain won 2 (MO, MT). If we wanted to be a bit more generous in our definition of "close" to include states decided by 10% or less, we get an additional nine states, 4 won by Obama (VA, CO, IA, NH) and 5 won by McCain (GA, SD, AZ, ND, SC).
In the final column of the table, I've listed the number of electoral votes that will be awarded by these states in 2012. Here is where we can get a real sense of the magnitude of the task for the Republican nominee. If we assume that states in 2012 will vote roughly as they did four years ago, the GOP nominee must win every state they won in 2008, plus North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, AND Iowa in order to caputre the White House.
When we look at previous presidential elections, we see that there were many more "close" states than we saw in 2008. For example, in 2004 we saw twelve states decided by 5% or less and twenty one with a 10% or less margin:
In 2000 there was a similar bunching of states, also with twelve decided by 5% or less. Twenty two had a 10% or less margin:
When we look at the data on a state by state basis, the magnitude of each party's win over these past three cycles becomes magnified. This is especially true, it seems, for 2008. While Obama's 52.9% of the popular vote was the highest of any Democratic nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, it is also true that he managed to win a lot of states by a large margin. One might miss this if they were concerned only with the national numbers.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Is There An Enthusiasm Gap Among Republicans???
Things have been dark here for many months. Now that the campaign is heating up, I'm going to try getting some things up on a more regular basis. I've got a couple of posts in the works but let's start with a short little data exploration.
With two Republican votes already in the books and another taking place in South Carolina this weekend, one question that has gotten a bit of attention is whether Republican voters are enthusiastic about their choices, especially now that the field is winnowing. For any party hoping to win the presidency--or any other election for that matter--turning out your voters is of primary importance. The assumption going into 2012 for Republicans was that given the degree of opposition on the right to the Obama presidency, and coming on the tails of their success in the 2010 midterms, there would be tremendous energy and activism mobilized to propel whoever won the nomination into the White House.
While we've only had a few contests so far, there is reason to wonder whether this assumption is in fact true.
If we look at the results from New Hampshire, a total of 248,447 votes were cast in the Republican primary across all candidates, more than in any recent Granite State GOP primary. When compared to 2008, this year's vote was an increase of 3.6%.
To get a sense of whether this increase is significant or tells us anything about the state of the GOP electorate, though, we need some baseline of comparison. I decided to look at recent New Hampshire primaries in which one party was trying to take over the White House from the other--a scenario that would seem to be ripe for increased turnout and mobilization. When we look at these contests, 2012 doesn't stack up well.
For example, in 2008 the Democrats saw a 31% increase in turnout over 2004 (287,556 vs. 219,787 votes). Also on the Democratic side--and also a successful party flip of the White House--1992 saw the Democrats increase their turnout by an even more impressive 36% over 1988 (167,664 vs. 122,912 votes). Looking at Republicans, in 2000 the GOP turnout was 16% higher than it was in 1996 (238,206 vs. 205,856 votes).
Unlike in later contests where the eventual nominee becomes established and most candidates have dropped out, New Hampshire primaries have full fields and permissive voting procedures--it is an "open" primary. Thus, we would expect the voting there to be a relatively good barometer of the party's enthusiasm. If the turnout results in New Hampshire continue into the later contests, there's reason for GOP leaders--and the eventual nominee--to worry about the fall.
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