Could We Ever See an "Inverse-Cohen" Dynamic???

As I was reading and writing about yesterday’s House primary in Tennesse, and the unusual racial dynamic that ran through it—Congressman Steve Cohen is the only white member of Congress representing a majority black district—I thought I’d explore whether or not a similar dynamic could happen, only in reverse. In other words, among the African American membership in Congress, how many of them represent districts with sizable white or Hispanic populations? Could challengers emerge among these groups arguing that they are a “better fit” for the constituency?

There are currently 40 African American voting members of the House (not counting D.C. and the Virgin Islands). I broke down their constituencies to look at the size of the white, black, and Hispanic population. What do we find???

Back during the 90’s when a wave “racial gerrymandering” created districts designed to elect more African Americans to Congress, it was assumed that these districts’ composition would be overwhelmingly black. In reality, the black proportion of each district is not as high as we might think. Across these 40 members, the district averages are: 49% African American; 33% white; and 13% Hispanic. No House district is more than 65% black (IL-01: Bobby Rush). Another nine are between 60% and 65% black.

Overall, we see a much more nuanced constituency composition:

24 are Majority African American
7 are Plurality African American
4 are Majority white (Andre Carson: IN-07; Emanuel Cleaver: MO-05; Keith Ellison: MN-05; Gwen Moore: WI-04)
2 are Plurality white (Barbara Lee: CA-09; David Scott: GA-13)
3 are Plurality Hispanic (Charles Rangel: NY-15; Laura Richardson: CA-37; Maxine Waters: CA-35)

Despite this relative diversity, we do not find a membership that is in much electoral jeopardy. These are all Democratic House members and have, for the most part, very safe seats. Across the 40 members, the average vote percentage in 2006 (plus 2 special elections this year—Carson and Richardson) was 83.5%. 12 members were unopposed in 2006. Overall, only 3 received less than 60% (Carson—54%; Ellison—56%; William Jefferson of Louisiana’s 2nd got 57% despite a pending indictment and Louisiana’s special runoff elections).

So, if we are to hypothesize about the feasibility of a strictly racially based opposition to these members, there are a handful of members who could be vulnerable. However, the challenge will have to be in the primary given how overwhelmingly Democratic these seats are. Given what we saw yesterday in Tennessee, though, we can be thankful that such base appeals to voters seem to be bearing very little fruit. While the advantages of incumbency are certainly at work here, voters in House races seem to be increasingly willing to vote for candidates of other races.

Cohen Wins Big in TN-09

Despite the racial and religious appeals by challenger Nikki Tinker, Congressman Steve Cohen was overwhelmingly renominated in the TN-09 Democratic primary yesterday. Cohen captured 79% to Tinker's 19%.

See coverage here and results here.

Things Getting Ugly in TN-09 Primary

Thursday brings with it an extremely interesting Democratic House primary in Tennessee's 9th district. A little history is in order to understand the dynamics at play in the contest. The 9th, which is made up solely of the city of Memphis, is 60% African American, and from 1972-2007 was represented by a member of the Ford family--most recently Harold Ford Jr. and prior to that his father, Harold Sr. When Ford the younger gave up the seat in 2006 to launch his unsuccessful Senate bid, the overwhelmingly Democratic district law a primary contest of monumental proportions. As is almost always the case in such lopsided districts, the primary winner became the de facto congressman.

The '06 primary had a roster of 14 African American candidates, plus one white candidate, State Senator Steve Cohen. As one would have predicted, the black vote was split, allowing Cohen to win with 31% of the vote (for a good rundown of the race, see here). The aftermath of the race revealed some dicey racial dynamics, both in the district, and in Washington. Cohen applied to become a member of the Congressional Black Caucus and was denied entrance. Despite his overwhelmingly liberal voting record--which went back through 24 years in the Tennessee State Senate--and a good working relationship with the black community--many in the 9th feel that Cohen is a "poor fit". He is one of only two white House members representing majority-black districts.

With the primary vote approaching, things have gotten increasingly nasty. Cohen's main opponent is Nikki Tinker, the runner up in the '06 primary. Her recent television commercial has been widely condemned by the Memphis media establishment (see coverage here, and the ad here). With primaries typically marred by low turnout, it will be interesting to see how things play out. I'll report the results and available data Friday.

**Update: A new Tinker ad on the air, with coverage here.

**Update: Track coverage of the race with the Memphis Commerical Appeal