Primary on the MOON!: Cinchy Beats Traffy!

Two Quirky Congressman, both Ohio Dems known for their extraterrestrial mutterings/musings, made quixotic runs for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., NW in the past 20 years. How'd they fare at home? Future Sec. of the Peace Dept./Rep. Dennis Kucinich mustered just about half the vote to win a competitive renomination bid this week, but, focusing on a reelection in question, he never filed for the Ohio Dem presidential primary.

Four years ago, on the ballot for a late March primary, "UFO cover up 'skeptic'" "'Cinchy" mustered 26.66% to eventual nominee Kerry's 42% - while securing renomination to the House with 85% - in his home CD, OH10, and posted a respectable 23% in neighboring Afro-Am majority OH11 .

In 1988, the Hon. James A. Traficant, Jr., aka Inmate #31213-060, a minor C-SPAN sensation for his "one minute" speeches punctuated with "beam me up," waged a spirited, if quirky, populist bid for the Dem pres nomination, focusing on his home CD, OH17, but only managed a meager 18.4%, just behind the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Sr., for third place.

Traficant was later expelled from the U.S. House for relatively minor corruption matters and fell to Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in a jailbird indy bid to regain his seat in 2002, gathering only 15% as, despite the name of his hometown newspaper, Youngstown and Mahoning County refused to dub him the "The Vindicator."

To add insult to injury, perhaps the last "favorite son" presidential candidate, former U.S. Rep. Doug Applegate, who only appeared on the ballot in his home CD - next door to Traficant's - racked up 29.3% while losing the CD's apportioned delegates to Dukakis.

What's "Traffy" up to these days? Drop him a line:
James A. Traficant, Jr. #31213-060
Allenwood Low FCI
P.O. Box 1000
White Deer, PA 17887

Buckeye SuperDelegate Standoff

Even though Ohio fell to the HRC "juggernaut," the Buckeye State’s Dem U.S. House Members are keeping their SuperDelegate votes in play. Politico reports that a “a bloc of Ohio superdelegates is withholding endorsements from Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton until” they exact a commitment to take up their economic populist agenda. Needless to say, that includes renegotiating NAFTA, a hot button issue in the Rust Belt.

Pressure to commit to the candidate that won their constituency’s electorate over seems to have backfired. Politico identifies U.S. Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Tim Ryan among this bloc, and notes that the rest of the Dem Ohio U.S. House delegation - save for prominent Cleveland-based Afro-Am HRC surrogate Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones - has yet to commit.

Prof. Murray analyzed OH Dem Pres primary results in CD's 18 & 6 here.

For the record, here’s how OH Dem-held CD’s broke down (note the only Dem held CD to vote Obama was Tubbs-Jones’ and that on-the-fence Kaptur’s CD was pretty even. More on that later…):

OH06 (Rep. Charlie Wilson) HRC 70-27%
OH18 (Rep. Zack Space) HRC 66-31%
OH17 (Rep. Tim Ryan) HRC 63-35%
OH10 ('Cinchy!) HRC 61.5-37%
OH13 (Rep. Betty Sutton) HRC 56-42.5%
OH09 (Rep. Marcy Kaptur) HRC 54-44%
OH11 (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones) Obama 69.5-30%

Hillary's Hail Mary: Ripped from the Koach Karl's (Rove) Playbook?

It’s Ohio primary eve and HRC is pausing, on its 68th anniversary, to “mark the Katyn Massacre of Polish prisoners during World War II” by Soviet troops. Sen. Clinton is also speaking up for Polish Americans and the “Polish nation and for all the peoples of Eastern Europe who have emerged from the darkness of the 20th century,” who also just so happen to enjoy a long and storied legacy in Cleveland’s historically working class white neighborhoods. Turnout in ethnic Cleveland is likely to be boosted even higher in Rep. Dennis Kucinich’s OH10 CD where the former presidential candidate is struggling to win renomination.

When you consider the strategy, it’s hard to not speculate that HRC really is making her last stand in Ohio; even taking a cue from Karl Rove’s playbook. Cuyahoga County is now famous as ground zero in George W. Bush’s reelection campaign, where Rove reportedly stanched steep losses with a ground game that fanned out to Catholic and Orthodox churches on Sundays with leaflets appealing to the conservatism of elderly parishioners in historically labor heavy precincts, tying John Kerry with the opposition to a statewide gay marriage ban initiative on the ballot that year. That minimized loss in urban areas, coupled with heavy gains in rural and exurban counties, the legend goes, saved Ohio, and reelection, for Bush.

It may have pulled a Republican electoral majority out of the fire one more time, but it’s not a very forward looking strategy as it relies on voters who may turnout in big numbers now, but who are literally dying out. Prof. Murray documented how George Wallace identified these voters decades ago - and taught Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan how to win them over - when they were far more numerous. (Check out Ward 14, home to St. Stanislaus Church, an anchor of Cleveland’s Polish community, and nearby wards where Wallace cracked 20%.) But, it was their very “white flight” - and hence, diminishing numbers - that defined their new voting habits.

While working these areas - home to the white working class voters and where HRC’s strongest demographic, older white women, turn out in droves, may pay off one more time - just like it did for Bush in 2004, the socially conservative or anti-foreign trade messages that win votes here are likely to alienate the growing numbers of younger, increasingly college educated white voters moving into the city and swelling the inner suburbs - or bleeding electoral votes to places like Northern Virginia or the Denver suburbs, coloring previously deep red states in a purple hue. More affluent, educated, liberal and integrated Shaker Heights, in contrast, is likely to be Obama territory.

The fantastic map above highlights this divide starkly by overlapping the 2004 presidential vote with results from the gay marriage referendum on the same day. It includes all of Cuyahoga County, but Cleveland’s cleavages are clear, too. HRC will try to maximize her performance with “Blue Collar Whites” and “Rural/Exurban Whites” - dwindling demographics in decimated precincts - and minimize her own losses in areas heavy with black voters and among “rich conservatives” and “urban liberal sophisticates,” groups that have performed well this cycle for Obama.

If Wisconsin Presages Ohio, Will Appleton Presage Lima?

Like similar sized “Rust Belt” cities, Lima, Ohio has seen a post-war economic boom followed by a period of industrial decline and sporadic racial violence. However, unlike many of those organized labor-heavy cities, Lima has remained rock ribbed Republican. Allen County - Lima hosts the county's seat - even stuck with Goldwater in ‘64, one of only five Ohio counties to do so that year, and wavered in its fealty to the GOP only narrowly in FDR’s Depression era landslides of ’32 and ’36. In this regard, the heavily Republican and 1920's KKK redoubt of Lima has been closer, electorally and geographically, to Richmond, Indiana than Flint, Michigan.

Given that history, it’s curious that last Sunday’s Washington Post chose Lima to feature as reporter Ricky Carioti investigated whether Hillary Clinton can hold onto her waning majorities among white working class voters as the primary season progresses, and if Obama can excite a previously politically sedate Afro-Am minority. (The Post noted that Democratic Governor Ted Strickland did carry Lima in ’06 and Kerry picked up very slightly in Allen County over Gore’s performance four years earlier.)

Pundits are poring over Wisconsin’s primary results for clues as to how Ohio might vote on March 4. Lima’s demographics and electoral history resemble that of Appleton, Wisconsin. Indeed, the cities of both Lima and Appleton split nearly evenly between Bush and Kerry, while the surrounding counties of Allen and Outagamie, Wisconsin returned healthier Bush margins. In Appleton, Obama replicated his statewide margin, but Huckabee nips at McCain’s heels in many wards.

Stay tuned to this post for an update after Ohio votes to see if Lima shows evidence of further Obama gains among white working class voters and if Huckabee can post a respectable conservative base protest vote again here.