Obama's Silver Streak Through Elkhart: Will It Stimulate More Hoosier Dem Turnout?

President Obama had good reason to blow trough Elkhart, Indiana on his two-city barnstorming tour touting his stimulus plan. This small, once-oasis of a Rust Belt city is a savvy choice for a campaign-style backdrop, and a perfect place to refer to repeatedly in his first prime time White House press conference last night.

GF-R slapped together a thumbnail sketch of Elkhart for WaPo’s website, noting its economic slump as the capital of the scuttling RV industry. Elkhart’s staggering, and swelling, unemployment rate has been cited as the prime reason Obama advisors selected this recently struggling city as a backdrop, including Almanac of American Politics guru Michael Barone, even though he makes passing note of its recent stunning electoral shifts.

Economic factors pointed to this locale as a newsworthy whistle-stop on this tour, but ElectionDissection can’t resist investigating those very electoral shifts that Barone merely mentioned, electoral shifts that made Elkhart a “must stop” for Obama on a road show mapped out to shore up his political base as much as to push PR for this legislation.

Elkhart County was ground zero in the electoral upheavals that made Indiana an unexpected battle ground in Election ’08. This last reliably Republican redoubt in the Rust Belt – only Indiana rejected Bill Clinton for Bob Dole in this region in ’96 - offered up a nail biter in November, when Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry the Hoosier State since LBJ’s ’64 landslide, albeit narrowly.

John McCain still managed to claim Elkhart, but at a drastically diminished majority from the overwhelming differential that George W. Bush scored over John Kerry in ’04. Even while ceding the county, Obama scored the highest Dem presidential raw vote total ever in Elkhart Co., and the nearly 14,000 more votes that Obama garnered than Kerry amounted to roughly half of Obama’s statewide margin of victory.

Elkhart was one of only nine out of Indiana’s 80 counties carried by Obama in this year’s primary when he gave Hillary Rodham Clinton a fright in a state that most pundits assumed was firmly in her column. Obama campaign organizers successfully harnessed the enthusiasm that spilled over from Obama’s comfortable 18 point victory over Hillary to maximize his general election vote in Elkhart, pushing him closer to capturing those 11 electoral votes.

Elkhart was once home to Miles Laboratories, the original makers of Alka-Seltzer. Miles has since been swallowed up by Bayer AG, the German pharma giant, but, like the millions of Americans nursed back to health to the sing-song of its celebrity cartoon spokescharacter Speedy Alka-Seltzer™, the previously perpetually-strong recreational vehicle and mobile home industries spared Elkhart much of the heartburn that ailed surrounding counties in Michiana, and the Rust Belt at-large. Elkhart has posted continual population increases at each decennial census, while the rest of Michiana stagnated.

At the outset of an economic downturn, it’s often recreational and other “non-essential” industries that take the first, and sharpest, hit as consumers tighten their belts. Elkhart’s troubles may well prove to be over-pronounced in the immediate term, and may yet rebound back to former fortitude once consumers regain confidence.

So, Elkhart doesn’t yet confound the pattern that ElectionDissection has been illuminating from our inception. Conventional Wisdom is insisting that Elkhart’s troubles spurred the spike in its Democratic vote in 2008 with traditionally Republican voters now demanding a more activist economic agenda. Demographic and electoral trends may not yet permit us to declare that “Elkhart is Obama-country,” but Elkhart does resemble on a more modest scale - with its relative historical economic strength and a more educated electorate, less susceptible to the siren call of economic populism of either the Democratic John Edwards stripe or the Mike Huckabee Republican variety - the thriving ‘burbs of North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia that have pushed those states from Ruby Red to Perplexed Purple.

Indiana/North Carolina Primary Nite LIVE Blogging

1:31 AM
In the time it took me to cab home and take my dogs for a spritz, things got even tighter in Lake County. We now have a winner. Clinton by a whisker. Lake County ended up going 55-45% Obama. I feel good about highlighting Lake County earlier in the day but I had no idea things would play out as they did. Signing off. CBMurray

12:37 AM
Gary is in and Obama's far ahead in Lake Co., but the "white flight" towns are going strong for Hillary. In fact, Obama lost a number of white majority wards in Chicago city itself in the Illinois primary. Most of the rest of Lake Co. yet to report is almost entirely white. It's getting very close, but if white Chicagoans rejected favorite son Obama's presidential ambitions - even after they voted for him for the Senate - will the white voters who fled mutli-racial Chicago (or Hispanic East Chicago or Afro-Am Gary) allow him to finally overtake the statewide totals?

Obama's better hope is what's left of Monroe County, the university center. JVLaB

11:21 PM
LAKE COUNTY PRECINCTS REPORTING!!!

Lake Co. Clerk Tom Philpot victorious in the County Coroner primary!
A “major step” for Philpot, blogs the Times of NW Indiana!

Oh, and Van Til won his Supervisor’s renomination and Lake County Recorder Mike Brown is back!!

But no numbers for president, and none for the razor-thin Dem gubernatorial battle between former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson and an wealthy Indy architect, Jim Schellinger. Seems the locals are milking it for the attention, or simply just care more about their local races. JVLaB

10:57 PM
Waiting for Lake County. A dispatch from Gary. This could get interesting. CBMurray

10:06 PM
Hillary’s shrinking margin might not be overcome by yet-to-report Lake County, which, although home to Gary, is only 26% Afro-Am. Much of East Chicago is becoming Hispanic – a Hillary-friendly constituency – and the rest of the county is largely working class white.

We might not know until tomorrow, as the The Times of NW Indiana reports “Porter County won't have final count tonight,” thanks to being overwhelming by unexpected Democratic turnout. It seems that students/new voters from Valparaiso University turned out in the record numbers forcing election officials to have to print more Democratic ballots. Obama’s big numbers might come more from Porter than Lake. JVLaB

9:35 PM
A detour into the absurd. In the IN 7th Democratic primary, which Andre Carson has won, there is the candidacy of Joseph C. "Hippie Joe" Stockett II--bartender, neo-Nazi activist, and past candidate for this seat. Laugh though we may, as of 9:32 pm, 912 individuals have cast a vote for him. CBMurray

9:22 PM
Confirming my recent surmise, Watauga County is coming in strong for Obama. Surrounded by counties where HRC is scoring 3 to 1 and 4 to 1 margins, Obama is leading Watauga 57-42% with half of precincts reporting. JVLaB

9:02 PM
St. Joseph County in Indiana is in. 53-47% for Obama. Centered in South Bend, home to Notre Dame, this would seem to present a nice test case for the confluence of the youth/high education variables that have been pro-Obama with the Catholic vote that has gone strongly for Clinton to this point. CBMurray

8:22 PM
With 26% in, Rep. Andre Carson (D) is pulling away from the pack for renomination to a full term. Elected in a special last month to fill the seat of his deceased grandmother, the late Rep. Julia Carson (D), Carson, Congress’ second Muslim Member, faced a well financed challenge by former state health official Woody Myers. But Myers is only taking 27%, just 2 points more than state Rep. David Orentlicher, the only major white candidate in the primary. JVLaB

Hoosier politics guru Brian Howey reported a heavy GOP cross over vote. As he predicted are they voting against Carson, but also for the white candidate?
JVLaB

8:08 PM
I'm finding that the NC individual county websites have better returns. Buncombe County (Asheville) and Durham are providing instant updates. CBMurray

7:58 PM
No Indiana returns in yet for Lake or Monroe County so I'd expect the margins to shrink a bit in Obama's favor. CBMurray

7:45 PM
Why is Putnam County, reliably Republican in general elections, going so heavy for Obama?
Two reasons that keep in the trend for Obama voters: county seat Greencastle is home to DePauw University and the county's median income is slightly higher than the Hoosier State as a whole. JVLaB

7:27 PM
According the IN Sec of State website, Obama's overtaken HRC, as of 7:25 PM, 15,711 to 13,668.
JVLaB

7:06 PM
First numbers are trickling in from Indiana, first polls to close in November.

Vigo County, home to Terre Haute, has been dubbed a bellweather county, as it's voted for the general election victor in every presidential contest since 1912 except '52 when Aldai Stevenson bested Ike by a mere 35 ballots.

Vigo's only 6% Afro-Am, but with 89% reporting, Obama has crossed the 40% threshold. JVLaB

Final Thoughts As Indiana Votes

John and I will be live blogging the results tonight from the ElectionDissection.com election bunker. One county I’m going to be focused on is Indiana’s Lake County. As I mentioned in my post last week, Lake County is one where Obama must do well if he’s going to win. It has a sizable African American population (25%) and is situated just across the Illinois border and Chicago. Thus, it is served by Chicago media and should be highly familiar with Obama, his record, and his candidacy.

Yesterday, Indiana politics guru Brian Howey did a chat on Washingtonpost.com. Talking about Lake County, he said:

“I asked Obama last week if his organizing activities extended across the stateline into Indiana. He said that as the steel mills closed, there were many Hoosiers in the churches and parishes he worked with, and a number of his Illinois neighbors migrated to Indiana. Yes, it's one large economic entity, all inter connected. Obama was expected to have an advantage in NW Indiana, but local sources believe the race has tightened up there. And it was hard to miss the racial fault lines in Da Region. Gary Mayor Clay, Sen. Earline Rogers and a number of African-Americans endorsed Obama; but a number of white mayors from Whiting, Hammond, Crown Point and Hobart sided with Hillary. If Obama loses the 1st Congressional District, he won't win Indiana. It was also noteworthy that Rep. Pete Visclosky didn't take a side. If he had endorsed either one, it would have been a big lift.”

Lake County, as Howey suggests, has an interesting, if troubled, political and economic history. Largely created by the steel industry—and subject to its growth and decline—the area is a microcosm of the white ethnic working class/African American tension that I’ve written a lot about here. When the economy was booming the blue collar whites (many first or second generation Americans) prospered along with blacks drawn north during the Great Migration. When economic fortunes declined, fault lines emerged. The city of Gary, for example, has seen its population decline by half since 1960. In his 1964 challenge to LBJ, George Wallace actually won Lake County in the Indiana primary (and received 16% in the '68 general vs. 11% statewide). Bobby Kennedy's campaign was given a lift with his victory in the '68 Democratic primary, aided by his deft handling of the tense racial dynamics of the county. Kennedy biographer Joseph Palermo describes the campaign here.

Despite these underlying tensions, the county has a solid Democratic voting history. The only time the Republicans captured the county, since Eisenhower's presidency, was in Nixon's 1972 landslide. It has given the Democratic nominee over 55% since 1984 and even Ross Perot's reformist message failed to resonate as he underperformed here compared to his statewide and national average. Lake County also has a rather colorful history of political corruption. For some reading on this subject, see here, and here. Robert Pastrick, the longtime mayor of East Chicago, was defeated for re-election after a court ordered special election called amid widespread allegations of vote rigging. He is now a superdelegate pledged to Senator Clinton so Obama supporters might be wise to watch very closely as the returns come in.

A First Look At Indiana--Does Pennsylvania Teach Us Anything??

With a week to go before the double bill in North Carolina and Indiana, I thought I’d take a first look at the Hoosier state and size up Obama’s chances. Most of the recent polls I’ve seen up to this point show him trailing Senator Clinton, with varying margins. Assuming that the results in Pennsylvania will have some bearing on the Indiana vote (press coverage, Clinton momentum, etc.), I thought I’d use last week’s vote as a way to speculate on Indiana.

In the Pennsylvania primary, Obama won 7 counties (Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Lancaster, Philadelphia, and Union) on the way to capturing 46% of the statewide total. What we seem to be seeing as these contests progress is a dynamic where Obama’s vote tends to be concentrated in urban areas and inner ring suburbs, plus more outlying counties that have an academic/university/research presence that brings with it young voters and highly educated/high income professionals. Basically what we’re finding is that Obama does better in areas with more African American voters, higher median incomes, higher education levels, and fewer seniors. Using these basic points of comparison, we see that Obama is perhaps at a disadvantage in Indiana, relative to Pennsylvania (data available here):

Indiana Vs. Pennsylvania:

African American %: 8.7 vs. 10.4
Median Income: $45,394 vs. $46,259
% w/College Degree: 21.7 vs. 25.4
% 65 Years & Over: 12.4 vs. 15.1

Only on the age variable, does he fare more favorably than he did in Pennsylvania.

Running the numbers on the counties Obama won in Pennsylvania, I found that these counties provided 32% of the total votes cast statewide. Philadelphia, with 19% of the statewide vote, made up the bulk of this. Looking at Indiana, I’ve tried to identify counties that might be favorable to Obama. I would identify first Marion County (Indianapolis). Marion County is 24% African American which should bode well for Obama. Next is Lake County (Gary, Hammond). Lake County, part of the Chicago metropolitan area, is 25% African American. Third is St. Joseph County (home to Notre Dame). This county is 12% African American plus has a sizable student/university population. Fourth is Monroe County, centered around Bloomington and Indiana University. Monroe is only 3% African American but, as noted, has a large student/university population. Finally, La Porte County is 10% African American. In the 2004 election, all of these counties gave Kerry a victory with the exception of St. Joseph which narrowly went to Bush.

Can we use this county level data, plus the Pennsylvania results, to make some projections? Because we don’t have a recent Indiana primary to use as a baseline for predicting turnout, I decided to look at the 2004 general. Using 2004, we see that the counties I’ve identified as most favorable to Obama provided 29% of the statewide turnout. Comparing this to Pennsylvania, we see Obama perhaps in a worse position. The more rural counties provide a greater share of the vote in Indiana than they did in Pennsylvania. So, making the assumption that Obama wins those counties I identified, he might end up further behind than he did in Pennsylvania (this also assumes Pennsylvania like margins in the remaining counties). This also assumes he wins with comparable percentages. It is perhaps a stretch to think that he’ll match or exceed the 65% of the Philly vote he got in Indianapolis. Whereas Philadelphia is roughly 45% African American, Indianapolis is only one-quarter black.

So, based strictly on this cursory demographic examination, things don’t look so good in Indiana for Obama. How might he fare better? One variable working in his favor, as several commentators have noted, is the “Midwest” factor. Whereas Obama has had a problem in more “Appalachian” regions (see here), Indiana’s geography and ethnic patterns are a bit different. Furthermore, bordering his home state of Illinois, there will be a greater level of familiarity with him, especially in the northwestern corner of the state (Lake, La Porte, St. Joseph Counties). A second variable is the fact that Indiana, unlike Pennsylvania, is an open primary. Obama has consistently outperformed Clinton among independent and Republican leaning voters who have participated in Democratic contests this year. So, to the degree that Obama is able to close the gap with Clinton in Indiana, it would seem that it's these voters that he’ll have to rely on.