Illinois Special Election Update

In a stunning special election, Democrats picked up former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's old district tonight. Democrat Bill Foster edged Republican Jim Oberweis to capture a House seat that had been virtually uncontested by Democrats for two decades. Kendall, Kane, and DuPage counties, longtime Republican bastions, went to Foster. The election returns are here.

As I hinted a few posts ago, this election would seem to be not only a test case for this fall's campaign, but also serves as a look into how newer suburbs and exurbs might behave in the future. Judis and Texeira, in their seminal "The Emerging Democratic Majority," argue that these areas are ripe for Democratic gains. In looking at the data, we see that Foster indeed won the suburban and exurban areas--the eastern part of the district--while Oberweis was successful (though not overwhelmingly so) in the rural western part of the district. As more and more people, especially young professionals, move in they are less tied to the partisan attachments of earlier generations and are able to remake the politics of these areas. It would seem as if we have another data point for this theory.

Back to Illinois

On Saturday there will be a special election in Illinois that many suggest will be a test case for this fall (and serves also as a test case of "The Emerging Democratic Majorty" thesis). In the race to fill the seat of retiring Rep. and former Speaker Dennis Hastert, Republican Jim Oberweis squares off against Democrat Bill Foster. Polling suggests a dead heat.

For decades, the district has been solid Republican country but as the Politico notes, it has been changing dramatically in recent years. Becoming less rural and more suburban (especially on the more populated eastern edge), Democrats feel they have a real chance at a pick-up. In the recent Illinois primary, slightly more Republican votes were cast in the district (75,000 vs. 66,000) as both parties had contested races for their nominations. Both Obama and McCain have made appearances and campaigned on the nominees' behalf and the parties' congressional campaign committees are contributing mightily to the effort. As with most special elections, turnout will be the key, especially for a Saturday vote. Never fear though, as there will be an encore performance of this race in November for election to a full term.