Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Texas First Look

Here is our first look at the results of yesterday's Texas Democratic primary. I'm going to be updating as I get more data and analyze it. Obama counties are in green, Clinton counties in red. At first glance, the candidates appear to have performed as we would have expected. Obama did well in the urban areas with the largest African American or college/young professional presence. He won Dallas county (see map) with 61% of the vote, Travis county (Austin) with 63%, Harris county (Houston) with 56%, and Tarrant (Ft. Worth) with 54%. Obama also won among those casting early ballots. Thus, as the Ohio data is showing as well, Obama lost some steam in the final days of the campaign.

Clinton, however, also did well in the urban context. Her success, as we would have expected given recent trends (and now supported by the exit poll data), occurred in those populous counties with a large Hispanic electorate. Specifically, she received 69% in El Paso county and 56% in Bexar county (San Antonio). Also of note is Hidalgo county, on the far southern tip of the state. One of the fastest growing counties in the country, it cast roughly 85,000 votes, with Clinton garnering 73%. As the map shows, Clinton won the vast majority of the counties statewide but their relative small size compared to the urban centers didn't allow her to run up her statewide total beyond 51%. Nonetheless, it was an impressive win.

Part two of the Texas two-step however are the caucuses. Here, Obama came out on top, as narrowly as Clinton did in the primary. The delegate allocation from the caucuses hasn't been finalized yet but the early reporting seems to suggest that after both the primary and the caucuses, the delegates should be essentially evenly split, if not slightly in favor of Obama.

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