Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Indiana/North Carolina Primary Nite LIVE Blogging

1:31 AM
In the time it took me to cab home and take my dogs for a spritz, things got even tighter in Lake County. We now have a winner. Clinton by a whisker. Lake County ended up going 55-45% Obama. I feel good about highlighting Lake County earlier in the day but I had no idea things would play out as they did. Signing off. CBMurray

12:37 AM
Gary is in and Obama's far ahead in Lake Co., but the "white flight" towns are going strong for Hillary. In fact, Obama lost a number of white majority wards in Chicago city itself in the Illinois primary. Most of the rest of Lake Co. yet to report is almost entirely white. It's getting very close, but if white Chicagoans rejected favorite son Obama's presidential ambitions - even after they voted for him for the Senate - will the white voters who fled mutli-racial Chicago (or Hispanic East Chicago or Afro-Am Gary) allow him to finally overtake the statewide totals?

Obama's better hope is what's left of Monroe County, the university center. JVLaB

11:21 PM

Lake Co. Clerk Tom Philpot victorious in the County Coroner primary!
A “major step” for Philpot, blogs the Times of NW Indiana!

Oh, and Van Til won his Supervisor’s renomination and Lake County Recorder Mike Brown is back!!

But no numbers for president, and none for the razor-thin Dem gubernatorial battle between former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson and an wealthy Indy architect, Jim Schellinger. Seems the locals are milking it for the attention, or simply just care more about their local races. JVLaB

10:57 PM
Waiting for Lake County. A dispatch from Gary. This could get interesting. CBMurray

10:06 PM
Hillary’s shrinking margin might not be overcome by yet-to-report Lake County, which, although home to Gary, is only 26% Afro-Am. Much of East Chicago is becoming Hispanic – a Hillary-friendly constituency – and the rest of the county is largely working class white.

We might not know until tomorrow, as the The Times of NW Indiana reports “Porter County won't have final count tonight,” thanks to being overwhelming by unexpected Democratic turnout. It seems that students/new voters from Valparaiso University turned out in the record numbers forcing election officials to have to print more Democratic ballots. Obama’s big numbers might come more from Porter than Lake. JVLaB

9:35 PM
A detour into the absurd. In the IN 7th Democratic primary, which Andre Carson has won, there is the candidacy of Joseph C. "Hippie Joe" Stockett II--bartender, neo-Nazi activist, and past candidate for this seat. Laugh though we may, as of 9:32 pm, 912 individuals have cast a vote for him. CBMurray

9:22 PM
Confirming my recent surmise, Watauga County is coming in strong for Obama. Surrounded by counties where HRC is scoring 3 to 1 and 4 to 1 margins, Obama is leading Watauga 57-42% with half of precincts reporting. JVLaB

9:02 PM
St. Joseph County in Indiana is in. 53-47% for Obama. Centered in South Bend, home to Notre Dame, this would seem to present a nice test case for the confluence of the youth/high education variables that have been pro-Obama with the Catholic vote that has gone strongly for Clinton to this point. CBMurray

8:22 PM
With 26% in, Rep. Andre Carson (D) is pulling away from the pack for renomination to a full term. Elected in a special last month to fill the seat of his deceased grandmother, the late Rep. Julia Carson (D), Carson, Congress’ second Muslim Member, faced a well financed challenge by former state health official Woody Myers. But Myers is only taking 27%, just 2 points more than state Rep. David Orentlicher, the only major white candidate in the primary. JVLaB

Hoosier politics guru Brian Howey reported a heavy GOP cross over vote. As he predicted are they voting against Carson, but also for the white candidate?

8:08 PM
I'm finding that the NC individual county websites have better returns. Buncombe County (Asheville) and Durham are providing instant updates. CBMurray

7:58 PM
No Indiana returns in yet for Lake or Monroe County so I'd expect the margins to shrink a bit in Obama's favor. CBMurray

7:45 PM
Why is Putnam County, reliably Republican in general elections, going so heavy for Obama?
Two reasons that keep in the trend for Obama voters: county seat Greencastle is home to DePauw University and the county's median income is slightly higher than the Hoosier State as a whole. JVLaB

7:27 PM
According the IN Sec of State website, Obama's overtaken HRC, as of 7:25 PM, 15,711 to 13,668.

7:06 PM
First numbers are trickling in from Indiana, first polls to close in November.

Vigo County, home to Terre Haute, has been dubbed a bellweather county, as it's voted for the general election victor in every presidential contest since 1912 except '52 when Aldai Stevenson bested Ike by a mere 35 ballots.

Vigo's only 6% Afro-Am, but with 89% reporting, Obama has crossed the 40% threshold. JVLaB

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