Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Bluegrass Preview--And Down The Stretch They Come!!!

Senator Clinton is expected to win Kentucky easily today, although she probably won't receive the margin she did in neighboring West Virginia. One area where Obama is expected to compete (and perhaps win), and which today's Politico points us to, is the Louisville area. As the story notes, the city has certain sections that are expected to benefit each of the candidates. John and I will try and find returns for parts of the city as soon as possible--and we'll be doing some live blogging tonight--to see if anything appears unusual or if either candidate under or over performs.

Three parts of the city to note are: 1) West End. This is the part of the city that traditionally has the largest concentration of African American voters. Blacks make up about 19% of the population in Louisville and 7% statewide. Obviously, this is Obama territory; 2) South End. This should be Clinton country. The South End is historically blue collar and the home to a GM and Ford plant where a large number of residents work. Also, there is speculation that a large General Electric plant in this part of town might soon be closing so economic insecurities may play into Clinton's hand; 3) Highlands. The Highlands is a more gentrified section of town, home to young professionals, the creative class, and University of Louisville faculty. This should be an area where Obama does well. The east side of the city is typically more upper class.

The city and surrounding area comprise the state's 3rd congressional district, now represented by John Yarmuth, an Obama supporter. The 3rd has long been one of the most competitive districts in the country and is always being targeted by both parties. Yarmuth captured the seat from Anne Northrup in 2006. The 3rd is also the only district in the state won by John Kerry in 2006, giving him 51%.

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