WY Caucus Trends: Obama's "Tetons" Burgeoning; HRC's Sweetwater Drought

Results from this Saturday’s Wyoming Democratic caucuses throw more cold water on the Hillary Clinton campaign’s repeated assertion that Barack Obama’s victories in areas without a history of voting Democratic renders him the less competitive general election nominee.

Two counties in Wyoming illustrate the flaw in this argument. The NYTimes reported that “most of the (candidates’) attention focused on the most heavily Democratic towns situated in the southern half of the state, where the Union Pacific railroad was built in the late 1800s, leaving a strong union tradition that remains.” Returns from Sweetwater County, on that southern tier, demonstrate this heritage most clearly. Sweetwater, in fact, has historically been Wyoming’s most consistently Democratic county in presidential elections, but, like other Mountain Western counties with labor or agrarian traditions - it was Socialist Eugene Debs' best county in one of his better states in 1912 - has been moving to the Republican column in the George W. Bush era. Gore’s 35% and Kerry’s 32%, in nationwide nail biters, clocked in under Mondale’s 38% and McGovern’s 42%, during Democratic drubbings.

Contrast Sweetwater with Teton County, home to the tourist destination Jackson Hole, which spurned hometown boy Dick Cheney as it delivered Kerry his only WY county in 2004. Teton resembles other booming Mountain West resort counties whose current heavy Democratic trend was presaged in 1980. In these resort counties, independent John Anderson and Libertarian Ed Clark scored stronger percentages than statewide totals - and the Mountain West was a strong region for both candidates - as Reagan comfortably outpaced Carter.

Since 1980, Sweetwater has grown by 50% in population as it’s Democratic performance has sunk to record lows. During the same period, Teton has tripled in population as Democrats scored their highest percentages since FDR.

“Hillary Clinton wins big in Sweetwater County” reported the Casper Star-Tribune, reflecting her national strength among labor and blue collar Democratic primary voters, often in counties trending away from the Democrats. In more affluent, resort-centered Teton County, Obama romped home. The numbers, from the WY Dem party, tell the story: Sweetwater goes HRC 56%-42% on a Dem caucus turnout of 596. Teton voted Obama by 80%-20%, with a turnout of 1,150.

Primary on the MOON!: Cinchy Beats Traffy!

Two Quirky Congressman, both Ohio Dems known for their extraterrestrial mutterings/musings, made quixotic runs for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., NW in the past 20 years. How'd they fare at home? Future Sec. of the Peace Dept./Rep. Dennis Kucinich mustered just about half the vote to win a competitive renomination bid this week, but, focusing on a reelection in question, he never filed for the Ohio Dem presidential primary.

Four years ago, on the ballot for a late March primary, "UFO cover up 'skeptic'" "'Cinchy" mustered 26.66% to eventual nominee Kerry's 42% - while securing renomination to the House with 85% - in his home CD, OH10, and posted a respectable 23% in neighboring Afro-Am majority OH11 .

In 1988, the Hon. James A. Traficant, Jr., aka Inmate #31213-060, a minor C-SPAN sensation for his "one minute" speeches punctuated with "beam me up," waged a spirited, if quirky, populist bid for the Dem pres nomination, focusing on his home CD, OH17, but only managed a meager 18.4%, just behind the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Sr., for third place.

Traficant was later expelled from the U.S. House for relatively minor corruption matters and fell to Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in a jailbird indy bid to regain his seat in 2002, gathering only 15% as, despite the name of his hometown newspaper, Youngstown and Mahoning County refused to dub him the "The Vindicator."

To add insult to injury, perhaps the last "favorite son" presidential candidate, former U.S. Rep. Doug Applegate, who only appeared on the ballot in his home CD - next door to Traficant's - racked up 29.3% while losing the CD's apportioned delegates to Dukakis.

What's "Traffy" up to these days? Drop him a line:
James A. Traficant, Jr. #31213-060
Allenwood Low FCI
P.O. Box 1000
White Deer, PA 17887

Buckeye SuperDelegate Standoff

Even though Ohio fell to the HRC "juggernaut," the Buckeye State’s Dem U.S. House Members are keeping their SuperDelegate votes in play. Politico reports that a “a bloc of Ohio superdelegates is withholding endorsements from Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton until” they exact a commitment to take up their economic populist agenda. Needless to say, that includes renegotiating NAFTA, a hot button issue in the Rust Belt.

Pressure to commit to the candidate that won their constituency’s electorate over seems to have backfired. Politico identifies U.S. Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Tim Ryan among this bloc, and notes that the rest of the Dem Ohio U.S. House delegation - save for prominent Cleveland-based Afro-Am HRC surrogate Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones - has yet to commit.

Prof. Murray analyzed OH Dem Pres primary results in CD's 18 & 6 here.

For the record, here’s how OH Dem-held CD’s broke down (note the only Dem held CD to vote Obama was Tubbs-Jones’ and that on-the-fence Kaptur’s CD was pretty even. More on that later…):

OH06 (Rep. Charlie Wilson) HRC 70-27%
OH18 (Rep. Zack Space) HRC 66-31%
OH17 (Rep. Tim Ryan) HRC 63-35%
OH10 ('Cinchy!) HRC 61.5-37%
OH13 (Rep. Betty Sutton) HRC 56-42.5%
OH09 (Rep. Marcy Kaptur) HRC 54-44%
OH11 (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones) Obama 69.5-30%

"West Texas (No data*)" but Still in Play

UPDATE on our "West Texas (No data*)" post.

Here's an indication of just how close the battle for every available delegate has become in the Dem presidential nomination contest:

Even though the WaPo/ABC News polls couldn't rustle up enough respondents for its "West Texas" region to make up a statistically significant sample size, that state's byzantine delegate allocation - by state Senate district and Dem performance - apportions a few, valuable delegates up for grabs there. Bill Clinton ventured up to Amarillo to woo the few Dems there.

Texas's few historically Republican counties won't be found here. (They're the German settled cluster in Hill Country, near Austin.) And the region has a history of Democratic congressmen, up to the 1990's, so we'll see if some folks who still consider themselves "Yellow Dog" Democrats - though have rarely voted that way for years - will still turn out for HRC.

"West Texas (No data*)"

"* Sample size in West Texas too small to report."

There's a gaping blank hole in WaPo's graphic mapping out the regional breakdown of the Obama vs. HRC Lone Star rumble. Data is from it's latest WaPo/ABC News poll.

Here's why:
That "windswept" region that reaches from the Panhandle down into hardscrabble Texas oil country is almost as sparsely populated as it is heavily Republican. (Note how the counties that tend to be lighter orange - tiny populations - are also the deepest shades of blue - going for Bush in 2004 upwards of 90%+.)

The graphic's "West Texas" limns the borders of Texas' CDs 11, 13, 19 and 21, home to four GOP incumbents who often fail to draw strong Dem opposition, if any at all.

WaPo's "West Texas" is not all ghost towns and ranching crossroads, however. Sizable small cities like San Anglo, Odessa, Midland, Lubbock and Amarillo anchor the region that promises to shore up the GOP's base as Dems become increasingly competitive statewide based on growth in the Austin, Houston and DFW metro areas and among an ever growing Hispanic electorate.

If Wisconsin Presages Ohio, Will Appleton Presage Lima?

Like similar sized “Rust Belt” cities, Lima, Ohio has seen a post-war economic boom followed by a period of industrial decline and sporadic racial violence. However, unlike many of those organized labor-heavy cities, Lima has remained rock ribbed Republican. Allen County - Lima hosts the county's seat - even stuck with Goldwater in ‘64, one of only five Ohio counties to do so that year, and wavered in its fealty to the GOP only narrowly in FDR’s Depression era landslides of ’32 and ’36. In this regard, the heavily Republican and 1920's KKK redoubt of Lima has been closer, electorally and geographically, to Richmond, Indiana than Flint, Michigan.

Given that history, it’s curious that last Sunday’s Washington Post chose Lima to feature as reporter Ricky Carioti investigated whether Hillary Clinton can hold onto her waning majorities among white working class voters as the primary season progresses, and if Obama can excite a previously politically sedate Afro-Am minority. (The Post noted that Democratic Governor Ted Strickland did carry Lima in ’06 and Kerry picked up very slightly in Allen County over Gore’s performance four years earlier.)

Pundits are poring over Wisconsin’s primary results for clues as to how Ohio might vote on March 4. Lima’s demographics and electoral history resemble that of Appleton, Wisconsin. Indeed, the cities of both Lima and Appleton split nearly evenly between Bush and Kerry, while the surrounding counties of Allen and Outagamie, Wisconsin returned healthier Bush margins. In Appleton, Obama replicated his statewide margin, but Huckabee nips at McCain’s heels in many wards.

Stay tuned to this post for an update after Ohio votes to see if Lima shows evidence of further Obama gains among white working class voters and if Huckabee can post a respectable conservative base protest vote again here.