Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Midterm Live Blogging

Here we go.  I'm doing my monitoring strictly on-line.  I can't stand tv coverage so for my sanity's sake--and for you, my fair readers--we're going to do this without having to cut through the yammering of Chris Mathews and other "experts."

8:23:  So far, things not looking good for Democrats in Virginia.  Pereillo going down, which was expected.  The bigger story is Rich Boucher down in coal country.  Boucher had always been able to not only hold this corner of the state, but do so quite handily.  Apparently that's over, which is a shame as I always found him to be a pretty serious, policy oriented member.  Gerry Connolly also in trouble in northern VA.  Along with Nye down in Hampton Roads area, Dems could lose 4.

8:34:  Connecticut Senate called for Blumenthal.  Republican hopes for the Senate take a hit.  Not unexpected but R's are going to need to run the table.

8:37: Manchin win called in WV.  That should pretty much end the R's Senate dream.  Only question seems to be whether Reid will be around to lead or if Schumer/Durbin battle looms.

8:45: Wisconsin getting ready to close in 15 minutes.  Polling shows bad night for Dems on the horizon.  Keep an eye out for 7th.  Obey open seat the most competitive.  Feingold not in good shape for Senate seat.

8:49: Boyd down big in FL-2.  Blue dogs are having their ranks decimated.  New Congress is going to be much more partisan as the remaining moderates are purged. 

8:52: Giannoulias looking good in IL w/12% in.  As with all IL races it will be the magnitude of Chicago turnout that determines the outcome here.  Does the machine still live???

8:55: Marcy Kaptur has a good night in what could be an ugly night for OH Dems.  Electoral Politics Rule 1: Don't dress like a Nazi.

9:05: Networks calling it for a Republican House majority.

9:20: Indiana's "The Bloody 9th" flips again.  Baron Hill out.  One of the most competitive districts in the country cycle after cycle.

9:29: New Hampshire goes back to its Republican roots?  Both House seats flip plus R's hold Senate.  Yet...Dems hold Governorship.

9:31: Just in case anyone was unclear about First Amendment, Oklahoma has voted to ban Sharia law.  Good God.

9:36: Dems. Kanjorski and Carney in big trouble in NE Pennsylvania.

9:41: Rahall holds on in WV.  Wonder how much Manchin momentum helped him.  Very ugly race as Lebanese American Rahall tarred with "Arab" tag.  Glad this kind of crap wasn't rewarded, at least here.

9:44: Lincoln Davis seems done in TN.  Another Blue Dog.  How many rural southern Dems left???  Chet Edwards also out in TX.

For Dems out there, might I recommend Clynelish 14 y.o. Single Malt Scotch?  Quite nice as I'm enjoying it now.

10:03: For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans hold the North Carolina legislature.  Gotta get my Eric Foner out to get the history.

10:11: Dems. Marshall and Bishop going down in Georgia.  The south is becoming essentially Republican unless you've got a sizable black population in your district.  Shuler hangs on in NC but he's very much the exception.

10:25: Wisconsin in for big changes.  Looks like two House seats flip (7 and 8).  Scott Walker elected Governor.  Obama got 56% in WI, one of his most impressive performances for a swing state.  WI unemployment not as bad as other Rust Belt states.

10:32: If anyone would have told you, 2 years ago, that West Virginia would be a bright spot for Democrats in the future, you'd have thought they were certifiable.  2010 is the bizarro 2008.

10:42: Russ Feingold defeated in Wisconsin.  Never won by a lot but was reliable.  Can't wait to see turnout data.  Low turnout in Dane and Milwaukee???  The Progressive tradition in WI really took a hit tonight.  With Feingold loss and Obey retirement, few remnants left.

10:48: South Texas has 4 Latino Dem. House members.  After tonight only 2 may be left.  Ortiz out, Rodriguez trailing badly.

10:54:  Only about 10-15% in for most races, but things looking really weird in upstate NY.  GOP renaissance where they previously only held 1 seat???  Numbers may not hold but interesting nonetheless, especially as GOP did well elsewhere in NE, especially NH.

11:07: How could so many PA Dem Incumbents lose but there still be a close Senate race?  Normally, I don't think campaigns matter much compared to underlying fundamentals but Sestak seems to be proving that wrong.

11:12: $160 million isn't quite enough to win CA Gov's race.  Moonbeam back.

11:18: Gene Taylor looks done in MS gulf district.  Longtime Blue Dog.  Well tanned, great hair, Catholic.  Fixture at Capitol Hill haunts Tune Inn and Hawk n Dove.  Better settle up on your tab.

11:25: Old Bulls and Dem Committee Chairs Spratt (SC) and Skelton (MO) go down.  Two more rural Dems hit the canvas.

11:35: Wave doesn't seem to crest over Mississippi River in Iowa.  3 Dem. House incumbents holding on.  Minnesota also holding solid for Dems, plus Gov. pickup.  Wisconsin really looking like an outlier now in my mind.

11:39:  Scott Brown doesn't improve Massachusetts GOP chances.  House delegation stays 10-0 Dem. with win in Delahunt open seat.  Deval Patrick re-elected Gov.

11:50: Grandpa voted, junior didn't.  Exit polls show a huge shift in turnout based on age compared to 2008.

12:07: No longer the one.  John Hall, former lead singer of Orleans, out in NY.  Those early NY numbers coming to bear.

12:17: First African American GOP congressman elected since J.C. Watts.  Tim Scott wins easily in SC.  With Susanna Martinez elected as first ever Hispanic female Governor (NM), is this the most diverse GOP since Reconstruction???

12:28: Reid seems to have it well in hand in NV.  Murray hanging on in WA.  All things considered, Dems seemed to do better out west.  Not sure what this means yet.

I'm going to sign off for tonight.  There's a lot to digest and sort through.  I may hold off tomorrow to allow me to put something together that isn't stream of consciousness.  There will be enough commentary out there to hold you over.

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